(Image source: FLASH Weather AI homepage.)
FLASH Weather AI (Pounding Mill, Va.) has launched a hail prediction model designed to forecast hail size and arrival time at high spatial and temporal resolution for short-term decision-making.
The model provides forecasts at a 1-kilometer resolution, refreshed every five minutes, with projections extending up to 55 minutes. The company says the system uses deep learning trained on U.S. convective storm data spanning 2021 through 2024 to support localized predictions.
Jason Deese, Founder and CEO, FLASH Weather AI.
FLASH Weather AI says the model generates deterministic forecasts of hail size and includes a companion tool that estimates arrival time for hail events at specific locations.
“For the first time, insurers, fleet operators, and infrastructure managers have a tool that doesn’t just tell you a storm is coming, it tells you exactly where hail will fall, how large it will be, and gives you enough lead time to act,” says Jason Deese, Founder and CEO, FLASH Weather AI. “That’s not an incremental improvement. That’s a fundamental shift in how the world manages hail risk,:
The model is available through application programming interface access and within the company’s Weather Command Center platform, with mobile integration expected to follow.
FLASH Weather AI says the tool is intended for use by insurers, infrastructure operators and other industries exposed to severe weather risk.
Leap Forward in Convective Forecasting
Dave Downey, Lead Meteorologist, FLASH Weather AI.
“Hail is one of the toughest convective hazards to forecast at high resolution. Getting size and arrival time right at a 1-kilometer grid, refreshed every five minutes, is a leap forward in convective forecasting,” says Dave Downey, Lead Meteorologist, FLASH Weather AI. “After a month in beta I trust this model the way I trust our proprietary lightning prediction, and that’s not a comparison I make lightly.”
The company cites industry data indicating severe convective storms caused an estimated $61 billion in U.S. damage in 2025, with hail contributing to a significant portion of losses.
FLASH Weather AI says the launch is part of its broader development of predictive tools for severe weather risk, including models for lightning and frost.
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