(AIR Worldwide COVID-19 projection tool dashboard. Source: AIR Worldwide.)
Catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide (Boston) has launched a COVID-19 Projection Tool. The vendor describes it as an interactive tool, powered by AIR’s pandemic modeling data, which provides COVID-19 case and death projections worldwide for the next four weeks, with data updated on a daily basis to project one day further into the future. The modeled projections of the pandemic are available globally at a country level and the outputs consider many variations in data availability and reliability, including underreporting.
“We’re providing this complimentary tool to give communities, businesses, governments, and insurers a better understanding of what the near future of the COVID-19 pandemic could look like,” comments Doug Fullam, director of life/health modeling, AIR Worldwide. “Additionally, we are making this information publicly available as we feel it’s imperative to leverage our strengths as a trusted data steward to provide services that benefit the greater good.”
The projection tool uses data from an AIR Worldwide catastrophe model. The vendor notes that catastrophe models are useful to understand the impact of low-frequency, high-severity events such as pandemics where historical data is limited. The modeled projections provided in the COVID-19 Projection Tool account for the effectiveness of containment measures, including the impact of social distancing, isolation, quarantining, and other mitigation factors. The scenarios provided in the projections tool are designed to give the means to help understand how effective these containment measures are at mitigating the spread of the disease.
AIR notes that projections may vary significantly from week to week. The company says that its modeled simulations take into account the latest data available, response/mitigation efforts, changes in hospital capacity, and other factors, which its projections reflect. AIR invites readers to review AIR Methods and Assumptions document for more details. The company provides the following links to view the COVID-19 Projection Tool and review FAQs on how to interpret its outputs.